Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO012020 200519 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.30     86.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   100.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]    100.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]    100.00            VF
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    150.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        46.3  43.1  39.6  32.2  29.9  28.0  25.1  25.4 VU VU  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   72.0  57.0  43.0  27.0  24.0  21.0  18.0  15.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    18.0   5.0  -7.0  11.0  11.0  14.0  -1.0  12.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  53.0  49.0  44.0  42.0  39.0  37.0  32.0  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  46.3  43.1  39.6  32.2  29.9  28.0  25.1  25.4 VU VU  U  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.7%        0.3%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        1.1%        0.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.4%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        0.4%        0.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        1.3%        0.3%        0.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%