Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO012020 200520 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.40     89.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -30.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     95.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     89.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    148.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        42.0  39.9  34.5  31.8  36.2  37.3  38.5  36.6 VU  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 107.0 102.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -33.0 -24.0 -15.0  12.0  18.0  17.0   3.0   5.0 VU VU  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  61.0  57.0  57.0  55.0  52.0  50.0  47.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  42.0  39.9  34.5  31.8  36.2  37.3  38.5  36.6 VU  U  U  U  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%