Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO022020 200602 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.00     71.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     64.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     51.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    123.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.7  29.2  28.0  26.2  24.6  33.1  33.4  29.3  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    40.0  26.0  -5.0 -12.0  -9.0  15.0  15.0  23.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  60.0  66.0  65.0  70.0  69.0  75.0  73.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  24.7  29.2  28.0  26.2  24.6  33.1  33.4  29.3  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.7%        4.5%        4.1%
 25kt / 24h        8.0%       22.8%       15.4%
 30kt / 24h        4.5%       11.9%        8.2%
 35kt / 24h        4.5%       11.9%        8.2%
 40kt / 24h        1.1%        3.7%        2.4%
 45kt / 36h        2.6%       19.5%       11.1%
 55kt / 36h        1.0%        7.9%        4.5%
 55kt / 48h        0.6%        6.4%        3.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        1.8%        1.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        3.8%        1.9%