Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO022020 200603 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.20     72.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     77.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     59.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    112.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        36.4  34.8  31.9  32.5  36.2  36.3  28.4  30.7  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   12.0  11.1  10.3   9.4   8.6   7.7   6.9   6.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     5.0  -5.0 -12.0 -16.0  15.0  33.0  24.0   7.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  62.0  61.0  63.0  64.0  65.0  67.0  65.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  36.4  34.8  31.9  32.5  36.2  36.3  28.4  30.7  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       17.5%       10.7%       14.1%
 25kt / 24h       19.1%       31.0%       25.0%
 30kt / 24h       18.9%       21.3%       20.1%
 35kt / 24h       18.9%       21.3%       20.1%
 40kt / 24h        6.0%        8.5%        7.3%
 45kt / 36h        4.7%       17.3%       11.0%
 55kt / 36h        1.8%        7.1%        4.5%
 55kt / 48h        0.2%        5.6%        2.9%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        1.4%        0.7%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        2.4%        1.2%