Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO032020 201122 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.60     54.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     61.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     41.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     56.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.0  26.9  23.1  22.5  17.1  12.5  11.2  10.9  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    6.0   3.0   2.5   2.0   5.0   3.0  14.0   9.5  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         98.5 106.5 108.6  91.2  91.2 104.4 108.6 115.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    66.0  82.0  81.0  46.0   4.0  17.0  15.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   49.0  51.0  49.0  50.0  53.0  54.0  53.0  58.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   1.0   1.0  -1.0   3.0   1.0   1.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.9%        1.8%        1.8%
 25kt / 24h        3.2%        9.3%        6.3%
 30kt / 24h        2.0%        3.4%        2.7%
 35kt / 24h        2.0%        3.4%        2.7%
 40kt / 24h        2.0%        2.6%        2.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.8%       13.8%        7.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.7%        5.4%        3.1%
 55kt / 48h        3.4%        3.4%        3.4%
 70kt / 48h        3.4%        4.5%        3.9%
 65kt / 72h        2.8%        8.4%        5.6%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons