Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO032020 201122 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.30     52.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   100.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    60.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     54.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     26.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     55.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.9  23.4  24.2  22.9  15.5  17.1  15.2  15.4  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         12.2 -19.2 -20.8   6.7  34.8  -6.2 -18.4 -49.4 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    82.0  81.0  56.0  30.0 -11.0 -26.0 -13.0 -13.0  N  N  N  N  U VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   49.0  48.0  45.0  46.0  47.0  48.0  50.0  51.0  U  U VU VU VU  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   6.0   7.0   5.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons