Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO032020 201122 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.30     50.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -30.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     12.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      4.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     45.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.3  21.9  19.0  17.7  13.6  11.7  11.2  20.3  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         10.8  23.8  42.2  68.5  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0 VU VU  U  U  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    75.0  51.0  14.0  12.0   5.0 -12.0  -7.0   5.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  54.0  56.0  56.0  58.0  60.0  64.0  64.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0   3.0   3.0   1.0   0.0   1.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons