Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO032020 201124 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.30     46.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     12.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     41.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.9  13.9  13.9  13.9  13.9  13.9  13.9  13.9  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   10.0   5.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        103.0 116.5 116.5 116.5 116.5 116.5 116.5 116.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -3.0  -3.0  -3.0  -3.0  -3.0  -3.0  -3.0  -3.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   3.0   3.0   3.0   3.0   3.0   3.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.1%        2.3%        1.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.7%        0.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        4.8%        2.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        1.4%        0.7%
 55kt / 48h        1.1%        1.6%        1.4%
 70kt / 48h        1.1%        1.5%        1.3%
 65kt / 72h        1.7%        3.9%        2.8%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons