Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO032020 201124 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.50     45.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     16.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      3.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     32.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        11.4  10.3  16.7  18.5  17.8  21.4  24.2  21.4  F  F  F  N  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         99.6 101.1 120.5 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -24.0 -19.0 -26.0 -30.0 -29.0  18.0  13.0  15.0 VU  U VU VU VU  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  64.0  64.0  67.0  71.0  63.0  56.0  48.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   1.0   2.0   4.0   1.0   2.0   2.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        3.0%        1.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        1.2%        0.7%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        1.1%        0.6%
 65kt / 72h        0.4%        3.5%        2.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons