Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO042020 201123 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.00     83.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     34.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     25.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    109.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.6  16.8  17.5  18.5  17.3  22.9  22.4  24.5  N  F  F  N  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   44.0  42.0  39.0  38.0  38.0   8.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 113.6  40.4  24.2  F  F  F  F  F  N  U VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   140.0 137.0 126.0 137.0 103.0  90.0  39.0  -4.0 VF VF  F VF  F  F  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  68.0  61.0  60.0  56.0  52.0  49.0  50.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.7%        3.6%        3.2%
 25kt / 24h       20.1%       36.5%       28.3%
 30kt / 24h       10.4%       19.3%       14.8%
 35kt / 24h        4.4%       19.3%       11.9%
 40kt / 24h        4.4%       19.3%       11.9%
 45kt / 36h       23.7%       45.3%       34.5%
 55kt / 36h       11.0%       20.6%       15.8%
 55kt / 48h       29.1%       27.5%       28.3%
 70kt / 48h       23.0%       20.9%       21.9%
 65kt / 72h       20.3%        8.5%       14.4%