Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO042020 201123 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :      9.80     83.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     38.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     31.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     91.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.8  17.9  18.7  16.2  20.7  21.1  27.0  27.1  F  F  N  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 104.4  69.4  68.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   137.0 126.0 137.0 124.0 106.0  70.0  29.0 -47.0 VF  F VF  F  F  N  N VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  61.0  59.0  57.0  52.0  46.0  46.0  44.0  N  N  U  U  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        6.3%        6.3%        6.3%
 25kt / 24h       23.0%       44.0%       33.5%
 30kt / 24h       13.6%       31.7%       22.6%
 35kt / 24h       13.6%       31.7%       22.6%
 40kt / 24h       13.6%       31.7%       22.6%
 45kt / 36h       22.3%       47.2%       34.7%
 55kt / 36h        9.0%       23.3%       16.1%
 55kt / 48h       15.5%       22.1%       18.8%
 70kt / 48h        7.5%       16.5%       12.0%
 65kt / 72h        5.7%        6.6%        6.1%