Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO042020 201124 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.10     82.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     91.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     86.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    118.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.4  21.5  20.7  24.2  28.7  36.5  30.7  24.4  F  N  N  N  N  U  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0  59.4  33.3  32.4 115.0  N  N  N  N  U VU VU  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   112.0 135.0 111.0  95.0  32.0  -4.0 -48.0 -50.0  F VF  F  F  N  U VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  64.0  61.0  59.0  59.0  61.0  54.0  53.0  N  N  N  U  U  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0   2.0   4.0   2.0   0.0   1.0   4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        8.9%       11.3%       10.1%
 25kt / 24h       31.7%       54.0%       42.9%
 30kt / 24h       15.6%       45.7%       30.7%
 35kt / 24h       10.9%       45.7%       28.3%
 40kt / 24h        9.2%       42.2%       25.7%
 45kt / 36h        9.7%       28.9%       19.3%
 55kt / 36h        3.1%       12.9%        8.0%
 55kt / 48h        1.4%        0.7%        1.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.7%        2.4%        1.5%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.9%        0.4%