Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO042020 201125 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.60     81.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     91.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     80.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    124.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.5  19.0  23.3  28.8  36.3  34.9  27.0  21.8  F  N  N  N  U  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   32.0  16.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  34.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         95.0  54.3  38.0  24.8  21.7   5.4  15.9  95.0  N  U  U VU VU VU VU  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   128.0 104.0  95.0  59.0 -55.0 -50.0 -54.0 -33.0  F  F  F  N VU VU VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  62.0  59.0  59.0  56.0  51.0  43.0  36.0  N  N  U  U  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   5.0   4.0   4.0   1.0   0.0   7.0   8.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       39.1%       22.6%       30.9%
 25kt / 24h       20.8%       21.0%       20.9%
 30kt / 24h       13.6%       15.6%       14.6%
 35kt / 24h       12.1%       15.6%       13.8%
 40kt / 24h        6.9%       11.4%        9.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons