Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO042020 201125 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.00     80.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     79.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     55.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    113.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.3  24.3  28.1  30.7  28.1  30.7  22.4  22.7  N  N  N  U  N  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         46.5  24.8  18.7  14.1   8.4  11.6  95.0  95.0  U VU VU VU VU VU  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   115.0 120.0  81.0  33.0 -65.0 -55.0 -37.0 -28.0  F  F  N  N VU VU VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  57.0  58.0  56.0  54.0  50.0  49.0  42.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   7.0   4.0   7.0   7.0   9.0   6.0  12.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       10.8%        3.3%        7.0%
 25kt / 24h        1.5%        2.3%        1.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.9%        0.5%        0.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons