Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO042020 201127 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.90     80.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     71.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.3  23.5  19.1  19.1  21.5  31.8  31.8  31.8  U  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  24.0  23.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         54.2  49.7  49.7  45.8 132.3 127.9 127.9 127.9  U  U  U  U  F  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -22.0 -29.0 -38.0 -30.0 -25.0 -36.0 -36.0 -36.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  56.0  49.0  51.0  45.0  40.0  40.0  40.0  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   7.0   4.0  -1.0   5.0   7.0   6.0   6.0   6.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons