Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO052020 201201 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :      8.10     84.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     87.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     79.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    131.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.1  25.5  29.7  31.5  32.0  31.2  26.9  29.7  F  N  N  U  U  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 9999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF
 Potential [kt]        127.0 122.3 122.3 124.6 127.0 127.0 127.0 130.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   103.0 119.0 107.0  78.0  35.0  14.0  13.0  10.0  F  F  F  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  63.0  61.0  57.0  54.0  53.0  51.0  55.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -1.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        5.0%        9.8%        7.4%
 25kt / 24h       26.6%       45.8%       36.2%
 30kt / 24h       11.4%       27.1%       19.2%
 35kt / 24h        5.7%       27.1%       16.4%
 40kt / 24h        1.8%       20.8%       11.3%
 45kt / 36h       13.6%       46.4%       30.0%
 55kt / 36h        6.5%       23.9%       15.2%
 55kt / 48h       19.6%       19.0%       19.3%
 70kt / 48h        9.9%       16.3%       13.1%
 65kt / 72h       29.3%       25.9%       27.6%