Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO052020 201202 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :      8.80     83.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     98.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     93.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    128.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.3  25.5  28.5  23.2  31.7  26.4  26.5  23.6  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   34.0  31.0  24.0  14.5  22.0  25.0  11.5   1.5  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        114.6 112.3 112.3 114.6 117.0 119.3 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   147.0 136.0  91.0  52.0  21.0 -22.0   1.0  21.0 VF VF  F  N  U VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  66.0  64.0  64.0  64.0  64.0  62.0  64.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       12.8%       15.3%       14.0%
 25kt / 24h       38.1%       56.2%       47.1%
 30kt / 24h       18.5%       44.6%       31.5%
 35kt / 24h       14.9%       44.6%       29.8%
 40kt / 24h        7.2%       37.3%       22.2%
 45kt / 36h       15.2%       48.4%       31.8%
 55kt / 36h        6.3%       27.7%       17.0%
 55kt / 48h        9.9%       18.3%       14.1%
 70kt / 48h        2.0%       14.1%        8.1%
 65kt / 72h        1.8%       13.4%        7.6%