Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO052020 201203 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :      9.00     80.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     82.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     70.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    109.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.2  20.1  20.0  14.5  24.7  27.1  31.5  26.0  N  N  N  F  N  N  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   23.0  23.0  11.5   0.0   0.0   0.0  41.0  45.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Potential [kt]        110.7 100.5  86.0  70.8  55.9  73.6 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   101.0  95.0  85.0  67.0  28.0  24.0  43.0  55.0  F  F  F  N  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  67.0  61.0  59.0  62.0  59.0  55.0  57.0  N  N  N  U  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0   2.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.8%        1.7%        1.2%
 25kt / 24h        2.1%        7.9%        5.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.5%        3.1%        1.8%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        3.1%        1.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        1.8%        1.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        7.4%        3.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        2.8%        1.4%
 55kt / 48h        0.3%        0.5%        0.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        1.5%        2.9%        2.2%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons