Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO052020 201205 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :      9.20     80.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     76.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     28.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    122.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.2  23.1  19.5  20.5  31.9  36.6  32.0  26.1  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        115.5 115.5 108.0  96.1 113.5 140.0 140.0 140.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    30.0  31.0  43.0  20.0  27.0  57.0  68.0  71.0  N  N  N  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  62.0  61.0  61.0  67.0  59.0  66.0  65.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   4.0   4.0   5.0   4.0   3.0   3.0   4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.1%        2.1%        1.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        3.5%        1.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.8%        0.5%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        2.3%        1.2%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons