Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH012020 191124 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -10.20    169.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     28.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.0  17.8  24.0  27.4  28.6  31.3  30.1  30.3  F  F  N  N  N  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   138.0 104.0  99.0  71.0  61.0  27.0  32.0  45.0 VF  F  F  N  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  60.0  54.0  56.0  54.0  58.0  56.0  55.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  18.0  17.8  24.0  27.4  28.6  31.3  30.1  30.3  F  F  N  N  N  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        4.9%        3.6%        4.2%
 25kt / 24h       24.8%       21.0%       22.9%
 30kt / 24h       24.8%        7.0%       15.9%
 35kt / 24h       24.8%        7.0%       15.9%
 40kt / 24h       24.8%        3.7%       14.3%
 45kt / 36h        8.2%       16.5%       12.3%
 55kt / 36h        3.2%        4.2%        3.7%
 55kt / 48h        3.1%        5.7%        4.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.8%        1.7%        1.3%
 65kt / 72h        1.5%        3.2%        2.3%