Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH012020 191124 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -10.60    169.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     71.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     55.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    131.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.8  25.5  29.3  29.6  30.3  30.5  30.9  30.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   91.0  81.0  71.0  62.0  55.0  49.0  46.0  42.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 107.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    69.0  54.0  56.0  39.0  34.0  36.0  29.0  13.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  55.0  56.0  60.0  57.0  59.0  57.0  56.0  U  U  U  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  23.8  25.5  29.3  29.6  30.3  30.5  30.9  30.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       51.2%       31.0%       41.1%
 25kt / 24h       58.3%       64.8%       61.6%
 30kt / 24h       49.8%       53.5%       51.7%
 35kt / 24h       49.8%       53.5%       51.7%
 40kt / 24h       20.9%       40.7%       30.8%
 45kt / 36h       33.2%       48.8%       41.0%
 55kt / 36h       21.4%       29.8%       25.6%
 55kt / 48h       16.8%       20.6%       18.7%
 70kt / 48h        8.4%        7.6%        8.0%
 65kt / 72h        6.4%        9.0%        7.7%