Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH012020 191124 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -11.20    169.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     26.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.4  34.4  37.5  36.0  35.1  30.2  30.1  31.5  N  U  U  U  U  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 9999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 107.0 104.6 104.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    71.0  76.0  70.0  46.0  29.0  14.0   2.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  49.0  55.0  54.0  52.0  51.0  51.0  48.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  30.4  34.4  37.5  36.0  35.1  30.2  30.1  31.5  N  U  U  U  U  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       10.0%        3.1%        6.6%
 25kt / 24h       23.0%       12.4%       17.7%
 30kt / 24h       23.0%        3.4%       13.2%
 35kt / 24h       23.0%        3.2%       13.1%
 40kt / 24h       23.0%        2.6%       12.8%
 45kt / 36h        7.4%        6.1%        6.7%
 55kt / 36h        3.0%        1.1%        2.0%
 55kt / 48h        2.3%        2.4%        2.4%
 70kt / 48h        1.7%        0.5%        1.1%
 65kt / 72h        6.3%        1.5%        3.9%