Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH012020 191125 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -11.80    169.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     62.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     40.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     83.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.4  37.6  36.0  34.0  29.2  30.0  29.7  28.6  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   68.0  62.0  55.0  49.0  46.0  43.0  40.0  38.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]        100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0  99.3  97.0  94.6  92.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    76.0  70.0  46.0  29.0  14.0   2.0   1.0 -19.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  57.0  54.0  55.0  52.0  50.0  49.0  46.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  34.4  37.6  36.0  34.0  29.2  30.0  29.7  28.6  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       31.3%       11.8%       21.6%
 25kt / 24h       32.3%       33.0%       32.7%
 30kt / 24h       24.2%       21.2%       22.7%
 35kt / 24h       23.6%       21.2%       22.4%
 40kt / 24h       23.6%       14.2%       18.9%
 45kt / 36h       14.4%       15.5%       14.9%
 55kt / 36h        6.2%        5.6%        5.9%
 55kt / 48h        2.6%        6.0%        4.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.7%        1.3%        1.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.7%        1.7%        1.2%