Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH012020 191125 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -12.30    170.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     43.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     24.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     80.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        36.4  35.4  32.7  28.1  28.4  29.6  28.6  28.8  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 9999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF
 Potential [kt]        100.0 100.0 100.0  97.0  92.3  90.1  85.7  83.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    71.0  46.0  29.0  14.0   2.0   1.0 -20.0 -31.0  N  N  N  U  U  U VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  55.0  53.0  54.0  50.0  49.0  45.0  43.0  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  36.4  35.4  32.7  28.1  28.4  29.6  28.6  28.8  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       14.0%        4.8%        9.4%
 25kt / 24h       17.9%       19.6%       18.8%
 30kt / 24h       14.3%       10.0%       12.1%
 35kt / 24h       12.2%       10.0%       11.1%
 40kt / 24h       12.2%        6.8%        9.5%
 45kt / 36h        9.0%        7.5%        8.2%
 55kt / 36h        3.9%        2.2%        3.0%
 55kt / 48h        1.8%        3.0%        2.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.9%        0.6%        0.7%
 65kt / 72h        2.0%        1.2%        1.6%