Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH012020 191126 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -14.20    169.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     48.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.0  34.3  30.1  29.7  35.1  37.5  36.3  38.3  U  U  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        119.6 117.3 115.1 112.9 110.7 108.6 108.6 108.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     3.0  -6.0 -31.0 -31.0 -21.0 -12.0 -13.0 -27.0  U  U VU VU VU  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  52.0  47.0  44.0  45.0  46.0  42.0  42.0  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  34.0  34.3  30.1  29.7  35.1  37.5  36.3  38.3  U  U  N  N  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%