Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH012020 191126 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -14.40    169.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      6.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      3.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     67.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        33.0  32.1  31.9  38.3  41.6  40.0  39.9  40.4  U  U  U  U VU  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   38.0  36.0  31.0  26.0  25.0  23.0  27.0  31.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        122.3 120.1 115.7 113.6 113.6 111.5 113.6 115.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -2.0 -11.0 -15.0  -5.0  -4.0  -9.0 -14.0 -23.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  53.0  52.0  48.0  48.0  45.0  39.0  36.0  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  33.0  32.1  31.9  38.3  41.6  40.0  39.9  40.4  U  U  U  U VU  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%