Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH022020 191205 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     -6.80     50.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     33.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     12.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     61.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.9  19.3  18.9  22.2  18.1  20.3  26.6  30.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   41.0  39.0  37.0  35.0  35.0  36.0  35.0  33.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 119.3 119.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    93.0 106.0  61.0  70.0  60.0  35.0  37.0  31.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  69.0  68.0  67.0  65.0  66.0  66.0  65.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  21.9  19.3  18.9  22.2  18.1  20.3  26.6  30.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        8.3%        6.2%        7.2%
 25kt / 24h       22.1%       35.6%       28.8%
 30kt / 24h       18.1%       18.6%       18.4%
 35kt / 24h       18.1%       18.6%       18.4%
 40kt / 24h       18.1%       10.7%       14.4%
 45kt / 36h       20.4%       34.6%       27.5%
 55kt / 36h       11.2%       15.7%       13.4%
 55kt / 48h       13.1%       16.4%       14.7%
 70kt / 48h        6.6%        5.0%        5.8%
 65kt / 72h        8.9%       10.2%        9.6%