Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH022020 191205 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     -7.10     49.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     73.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     54.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     65.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.4  18.9  22.2  18.1  20.3  26.2  30.1  28.2  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 9999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 109.3 109.3 107.0 107.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   107.0  61.0  70.0  60.0  35.0  37.0  31.0  24.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  68.0  67.0  65.0  65.0  66.0  65.0  62.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  19.4  18.9  22.2  18.1  20.3  26.2  30.1  28.2  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       39.2%       29.2%       34.2%
 25kt / 24h       61.6%       72.1%       66.8%
 30kt / 24h       55.3%       65.4%       60.4%
 35kt / 24h       55.3%       65.4%       60.4%
 40kt / 24h       55.3%       51.0%       53.2%
 45kt / 36h       41.5%       62.3%       51.9%
 55kt / 36h       28.1%       45.2%       36.6%
 55kt / 48h       27.3%       33.6%       30.5%
 70kt / 48h       14.2%       12.7%       13.5%
 65kt / 72h       16.3%       19.4%       17.8%