Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH022020 191206 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     -7.80     49.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     94.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     83.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     74.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.0  23.3  18.0  21.1  26.1  30.8  27.7  28.0  N  N  F  N  N  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   33.0  34.0  35.0  35.0  33.0  29.0  27.0  30.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        100.0  99.3  99.3  97.0  97.0  97.0  99.3 100.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    46.0  33.0  28.0  14.0   5.0  -7.0  -8.0   0.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  68.0  66.0  69.0  68.0  69.0  64.0  66.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  23.0  23.3  18.0  21.1  26.1  30.8  27.7  28.0  N  N  F  N  N  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       60.5%       43.1%       51.8%
 25kt / 24h       63.3%       76.7%       70.0%
 30kt / 24h       63.3%       76.7%       70.0%
 35kt / 24h       63.3%       76.7%       70.0%
 40kt / 24h       63.3%       58.5%       60.9%
 45kt / 36h       32.8%       52.3%       42.5%
 55kt / 36h       19.7%       37.2%       28.5%
 55kt / 48h       10.5%       23.5%       17.0%
 70kt / 48h        1.1%        6.2%        3.7%
 65kt / 72h        0.4%        7.7%        4.1%