Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH022020 191206 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     -8.70     48.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     55.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     40.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     74.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        11.9  11.1  16.1  21.7  17.3  16.3  21.8  25.8  F  F  F  N  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   35.0  37.0  33.0  28.0  28.0  36.0  43.0  47.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Potential [kt]        100.0 100.0 100.0  99.3 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    59.0  48.0  93.0 112.0  70.0  63.0  62.0  68.0  N  N  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  68.0  66.0  64.0  60.0  59.0  57.0  58.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  11.9  11.1  16.1  21.7  17.3  16.3  21.8  25.8  F  F  F  N  F  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       19.5%       18.5%       19.0%
 25kt / 24h       40.5%       51.7%       46.1%
 30kt / 24h       36.8%       45.5%       41.1%
 35kt / 24h       36.8%       45.5%       41.1%
 40kt / 24h       36.8%       32.2%       34.5%
 45kt / 36h       34.2%       31.8%       33.0%
 55kt / 36h       17.4%       15.7%       16.6%
 55kt / 48h       21.6%       26.2%       23.9%
 70kt / 48h        6.9%        4.4%        5.7%
 65kt / 72h        7.9%        5.5%        6.7%