Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH022020 191206 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     -9.20     48.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     60.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     36.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     61.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        10.7  14.0  19.6  15.0  14.8  20.3  21.2  14.6  F  F  N  F  F  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 9999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF
 Potential [kt]         97.0  99.3 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    48.0  93.0 112.0  70.0  63.0  62.0  68.0  26.0  N  F  F  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  65.0  63.0  60.0  58.0  55.0  56.0  57.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  10.7  14.0  19.6  15.0  14.8  20.3  21.2  14.6  F  F  N  F  F  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       14.1%       16.5%       15.3%
 25kt / 24h       42.9%       52.9%       47.9%
 30kt / 24h       34.7%       45.0%       39.8%
 35kt / 24h       34.7%       45.0%       39.8%
 40kt / 24h       34.7%       34.3%       34.5%
 45kt / 36h       36.0%       31.4%       33.7%
 55kt / 36h       19.9%       14.8%       17.3%
 55kt / 48h       33.5%       33.2%       33.4%
 70kt / 48h       16.9%        5.8%       11.3%
 65kt / 72h       39.1%       16.4%       27.7%