Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH022020 191207 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     -9.00     48.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     75.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     66.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     50.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.8  23.7  19.1  20.4  19.3  25.9  27.2  21.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   33.0  28.0  24.0  27.0  33.0  38.0  43.0  46.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Potential [kt]         89.3  89.3  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    30.0  18.0  27.0   9.0  19.0  -9.0  -8.0 -11.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  73.0  68.0  65.0  64.0  63.0  61.0  58.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  19.8  23.7  19.1  20.4  19.3  25.9  27.2  21.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       47.4%       28.0%       37.7%
 25kt / 24h       60.7%       57.4%       59.1%
 30kt / 24h       60.7%       57.4%       59.1%
 35kt / 24h       60.7%       57.4%       59.1%
 40kt / 24h       60.7%       40.4%       50.5%
 45kt / 36h       28.9%       26.6%       27.8%
 55kt / 36h       13.9%       13.5%       13.7%
 55kt / 48h        8.5%       17.2%       12.8%
 70kt / 48h        0.6%        2.2%        1.4%
 65kt / 72h        0.4%        3.7%        2.0%