Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH022020 191208 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -11.80     46.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     45.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     33.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     60.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.1  17.1  14.7  15.5  16.2  16.1  12.8  16.5  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   53.0  58.0  59.0  53.0  38.0  34.8  31.5  28.3  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    63.0  31.0 -35.0 -16.0   2.0  -7.0 -26.0 -28.0  N  N VU  U  U  U VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  58.0  54.0  51.0  51.0  52.0  55.0  57.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  15.1  17.1  14.7  15.5  16.2  16.1  12.8  16.5  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.9%        3.1%        3.5%
 25kt / 24h        6.2%       10.7%        8.5%
 30kt / 24h        5.5%        6.2%        5.9%
 35kt / 24h        4.4%        6.2%        5.3%
 40kt / 24h        4.4%        3.4%        3.9%
 45kt / 36h       19.2%        3.1%       11.1%
 55kt / 36h        2.2%        0.9%        1.5%
 55kt / 48h        4.3%        3.1%        3.7%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%