Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH022020 191209 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -13.60     46.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     80.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     70.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     74.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.8  23.1  13.8  12.1  13.7  12.2  13.9  18.7  N  N  F  F  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   62.0  61.0   2.0   3.1   4.3   5.4   6.5   7.6  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    20.0  20.0 -20.0 -29.0  30.0  19.0  -7.0 -13.0  U  U VU VU  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  58.0  56.0  53.0  56.0  56.0  61.0  60.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  23.8  23.1  13.8  12.1  13.7  12.2  13.9  18.7  N  N  F  F  F  F  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        9.4%        7.2%        8.3%
 25kt / 24h       15.0%       25.6%       20.3%
 30kt / 24h       11.4%       21.8%       16.6%
 35kt / 24h        8.5%       21.8%       15.2%
 40kt / 24h        8.5%       10.9%        9.7%
 45kt / 36h       15.6%        9.2%       12.4%
 55kt / 36h        3.6%        3.4%        3.5%
 55kt / 48h        5.1%        9.5%        7.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.8%        0.5%
 65kt / 72h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%