Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH022020 191209 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -14.60     45.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     99.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     94.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     95.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.5  13.9  11.9  13.9  12.2  13.7  19.9  17.2  N  F  F  F  F  F  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         85.0  60.5  22.9  11.7   1.6  -9.2 -19.1 -21.5  N  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    20.0 -20.0 -29.0  31.0  19.0  -8.0 -16.0   1.0  U VU VU  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  55.0  55.0  56.0  57.0  61.0  62.0  62.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  22.5  13.9  11.9  13.9  12.2  13.7  19.9  17.2  N  F  F  F  F  F  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        5.9%        5.8%        5.9%
 25kt / 24h        2.3%        5.6%        4.0%
 30kt / 24h        1.7%        4.0%        2.8%
 35kt / 24h        1.7%        4.0%        2.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.8%        0.9%        0.9%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%