Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH022020 191209 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.70     45.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     99.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     92.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    106.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.5  14.7  15.2  16.3  16.1  20.4  19.6  20.1  N  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   21.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         54.8  24.2   5.9  -4.6 -16.8 -21.1 -17.3   4.1  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -22.0 -15.0  21.0  19.0   3.0  -6.0  -1.0  -1.0 VU  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  56.0  56.0  57.0  61.0  61.0  60.0  64.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  20.5  14.7  15.2  16.3  16.1  20.4  19.6  20.1  N  F  F  F  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        8.1%        5.0%        6.6%
 25kt / 24h        1.1%        2.7%        1.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%