Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH022020 191210 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.40     44.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     40.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     12.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     78.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        11.3  13.3  17.6  17.7  15.6  11.8  14.8  24.8  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    4.0   4.0   4.0   4.0   4.0   4.0   4.0   4.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0  92.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     9.0  17.0  -4.0  -8.0  -8.0 -12.0  13.0  25.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  57.0  62.0  61.0  64.0  65.0  68.0  70.0  N  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  11.3  13.3  17.6  17.7  15.6  11.8  14.8  24.8  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        1.2%        0.7%
 25kt / 24h        0.8%        6.2%        3.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.4%        3.3%        1.8%
 35kt / 24h        0.3%        3.3%        1.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.3%        1.4%        0.9%
 45kt / 36h        0.8%        1.8%        1.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.4%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.4%        3.6%        2.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%