Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH022020 191210 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -19.30     44.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      4.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      1.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     65.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.3  21.4  17.1  16.6  18.8  24.0  27.9  32.4  F  N  F  F  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  12.0   1.0   0.7  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         35.7  26.6  15.2  11.2  28.3  72.7  79.8  71.0  U VU VU VU VU  U  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -8.0  17.0 -10.0 -11.0  18.0  29.0  55.0  71.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  61.0  64.0  66.0  73.0  75.0  77.0  78.0  U  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  16.3  21.4  17.1  16.6  18.8  24.0  27.9  32.4  F  N  F  F  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%