Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH022020 191211 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -20.50     45.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     37.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     22.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     88.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.3  20.0  21.1  25.3  32.5  38.7  51.1  60.0  F  N  N  N  U  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    3.0   3.0   3.0  12.0   1.0   0.5   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 117.9 105.5  92.7  86.1  74.4  66.7  F  F  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    13.0   7.0  21.0  33.0  45.0  79.0  98.0  70.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  66.0  70.0  73.0  76.0  78.0  78.0  75.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  15.3  20.0  21.1  25.3  32.5  38.7  51.1  60.0  F  N  N  N  U  U VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        1.9%        0.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.6%        0.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%