Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH032020 191206 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -11.00     62.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   120.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   120.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     21.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      5.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     56.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.5  23.6  24.2  26.6  25.6  22.4  21.8  23.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 9999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF
 Potential [kt]         45.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  44.3  42.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    79.0  52.0  25.0  17.0   2.0 -10.0   2.0  -7.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  70.0  67.0  63.0  63.0  66.0  66.0  63.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  24.5  23.6  24.2  26.6  25.6  22.4  21.8  23.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       26.2%        4.1%       15.1%
 25kt / 24h        9.8%        4.9%        7.4%
 30kt / 24h        9.8%        1.9%        5.9%
 35kt / 24h        3.1%        1.9%        2.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%