Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH032020 191206 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -11.50     62.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -25.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     60.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     47.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     46.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.4  25.3  24.7  23.8  24.1  25.7  28.9  27.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  79.3  77.0  74.6  72.3  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    38.0  22.0  44.0  14.0   8.0  -6.0   3.0  -2.0  N  U  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  65.0  62.0  62.0  62.0  63.0  60.0  62.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  27.4  25.3  24.7  23.8  24.1  25.7  28.9  27.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.4%        1.5%        1.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%