Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH032020 191207 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -12.40     63.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -25.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     41.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     23.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     59.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.2  27.9  22.4  21.0  20.6  21.9  23.0  26.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        105.0 105.0 105.0 104.3 104.3 102.0 102.0 102.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    23.0   4.0 -19.0 -14.0  16.0   4.0  22.0   6.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  60.0  61.0  57.0  59.0  61.0  59.0  58.0  N  N  N  U  U  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  29.2  27.9  22.4  21.0  20.6  21.9  23.0  26.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        1.5%        0.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.4%        0.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.9%        0.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%