Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH032020 191207 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -13.20     63.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -25.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     15.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     68.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.1  21.5  24.0  19.8  21.0  22.6  27.2  29.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   45.0  38.0  32.0  26.0  23.0  21.0  19.0  18.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        115.0 114.3 112.0 107.3 102.9 100.7  98.6  96.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     4.0 -19.0 -14.0  16.0   5.0  22.0   6.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  63.0  61.0  61.0  62.0  64.0  62.0  62.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  30.1  21.5  24.0  19.8  21.0  22.6  27.2  29.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%