Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH032020 191208 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.00     62.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      5.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     69.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        38.4  40.0  39.1  39.1  40.4  36.9  33.1  26.8  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   30.0  18.0  12.0  13.0  13.0  10.0  10.0  10.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        113.6 101.6  98.0  98.0  99.8  98.0  98.0  98.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    36.0  34.0  25.0  12.0  29.0  11.0   0.0 -12.0  N  N  U  U  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  56.0  57.0  59.0  58.0  62.0  64.0  68.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  38.4  40.0  39.1  39.1  40.4  36.9  33.1  26.8  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%