Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH032020 191208 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.50     61.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     51.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.1  27.8  29.7  28.4  25.5  23.7  23.8  23.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   19.0  19.0  18.0  17.0  17.0  17.0  16.0  16.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        132.9 130.7 128.6 128.6 126.5 126.5 126.5 126.5  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    49.0  49.0  31.0  20.0 -11.0 -18.0  -6.0  11.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  63.0  60.0  58.0  59.0  60.0  57.0  55.0  N  N  N  U  U  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  28.1  27.8  29.7  28.4  25.5  23.7  23.8  23.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        1.1%        1.1%        1.1%