Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH052020 191229 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -20.20     59.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     34.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     29.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    101.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.2  20.3  23.7  26.8  29.9  31.4  34.9  44.5  N  N  N  N  N  U  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        107.4 109.4 111.5 111.5 111.5 111.5 107.4 101.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    86.0  90.0  60.0  51.0  52.0  70.0  65.0  94.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  56.0  57.0  56.0  57.0  57.0  57.0  61.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  23.2  20.3  23.7  26.8  29.9  31.4  34.9  44.5  N  N  N  N  N  U  U VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        3.2%        1.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.7%        0.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        3.6%        1.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%