Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH052020 191230 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -20.60     58.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     52.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     33.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     92.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.0  15.8  21.8  21.8  22.8  28.9  37.0  46.1  F  F  N  N  N  N  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    5.0   5.0   6.0   6.0   5.0   5.0   6.0   2.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        109.4 111.5 111.5 111.5 109.4 105.5  98.0  89.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    53.0  47.0  45.0  35.0  40.0  63.0  77.0  68.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  53.0  54.0  53.0  56.0  56.0  60.0  63.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  18.0  15.8  21.8  21.8  22.8  28.9  37.0  46.1  F  F  N  N  N  N  U VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        1.1%        0.6%
 25kt / 24h        0.9%        6.4%        3.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        1.9%        1.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        1.9%        1.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        7.5%        3.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        2.4%        1.3%
 55kt / 48h        0.4%        0.8%        0.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.4%        0.5%        0.5%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%