Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH052020 191230 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -20.60     58.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     37.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      8.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     84.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.5  22.3  22.3  22.8  30.0  37.2  46.6  44.6  F  N  N  N  N  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         86.0  86.0  86.0  86.0  91.2  93.0  78.0  59.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    47.0  46.0  35.0  40.0  63.0  77.0  67.0  53.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  58.0  56.0  55.0  61.0  64.0  70.0  70.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  16.5  22.3  22.3  22.8  30.0  37.2  46.6  44.6  F  N  N  N  N  U VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.4%        0.7%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        2.2%        1.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.6%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        2.7%        1.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.9%        0.4%
 55kt / 48h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%