Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH052020 191230 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -20.90     58.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     18.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      5.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     84.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.5  20.3  28.6  38.2  42.1  42.0  50.3  61.8  F  N  N  U VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         76.0  76.0  81.2  77.7  59.4  44.8  40.7  33.3  U  U  N  N  U  U  U VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    34.0  46.0  72.0  74.0  52.0  82.0 120.0 160.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  58.0  61.0  61.0  67.0  71.0  72.0  71.0  N  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  17.5  20.3  28.6  38.2  42.1  42.0  50.3  61.8  F  N  N  U VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.2%        0.7%        1.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        1.3%        0.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.6%        0.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%