Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH052020 191231 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -21.70     58.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     52.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     17.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     89.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.0  44.9  48.2  47.9  57.0  69.2  68.4  68.7  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         43.6  42.2  34.2  22.7  19.7  10.0   4.7 -10.3  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   114.0  85.0  84.0  89.0 134.0 176.0 179.0 197.0  F  F  N  F VF VF VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  69.0  68.0  70.0  72.0  71.0  72.0  74.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  34.0  44.9  48.2  47.9  57.0  69.2  68.4  68.7  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        6.8%        0.9%        3.8%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        0.5%        0.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%